The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s 2025 economic growth projection to 3.9 percent, citing stronger oil output, improving investor confidence, and the impact of recent fiscal and monetary reforms.
The new forecast reflects a 0.5 percent rise from the Fund’s earlier July 2025 projection and almost a one percent increase compared to the April estimate.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report titled “Global Economy in Flux,” the IMF noted that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.1 percent in 2024 and is expected to maintain steady progress, reaching 4.2 percent by 2026. The Fund said the country’s resilience stems from higher oil production levels, fiscal support from the federal government, and ongoing policy adjustments that have improved investor trust and market transparency.
According to the IMF, reforms in the energy and financial sectors, coupled with improved exchange rate management, have enhanced capital inflows and helped stabilize the economy. It added that Nigeria’s limited exposure to global tariff wars also contributed to the improved outlook, making the nation less vulnerable to external economic shocks.
Despite the positive growth trajectory, the IMF warned that inflation remains a challenge. The Fund projected that Nigeria’s average inflation rate will ease from 31.4 percent in 2024 to 23 percent in 2025 and 22 percent in 2026. End-of-year inflation is expected to drop further to 21 percent in 2025 and 18 percent in 2026 as food and energy prices gradually stabilize.
The IMF also highlighted a moderate decline in the current account surplus, projected to narrow from 6.8 percent of GDP in 2024 to 5.7 percent in 2025, and 3.6 percent by 2026. It explained that higher imports are likely to offset some of the gains from increased oil exports. The report also noted that Nigeria’s rebasing of its national accounts, with 2019 as the new base year, has led to a 40 percent rise in nominal GDP by capturing more data from emerging sectors like technology, modular refineries, and informal agriculture.
During the briefing, IMF Research Department official Denz Igan said, “We have revised Nigeria’s growth rate upward to 3.9 percent for 2025, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than our previous projection. The 2026 forecast has also been raised to 4.2 percent.” He added that improved oil output, better security in producing regions, and exchange rate reforms are driving renewed investor optimism in Africa’s largest economy.
